The S&P 500 closed above 7,800 for the first time, then long-term yields climbed to their highest levels in more than two decades. Just as rates began to ease, a single revenue figure from a leading AI developer did what the bond market could not.

-Research by Yang Xin (辛旸)

-Written by Joyce Ann Macalintal

The market breathed a sigh of relief, only to have it snatched back within 48 hours. An unexpected Fed comment sparked a second wind, and by the final day, markets caught an early glimpse of what a crack in the AI growth story might look like.


-Research by Yang Xin (辛旸)

-Written by Joyce Ann Macalintal

Equity markets began the week on a strong note, supported by renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, a major chipmaker surpassing a trillion-dollar market capitalization milestone, and a notable decline in oil prices. These factors helped propel the Nasdaq to consecutive record highs, reflecting continued investor optimism toward technology-driven growth.

However, the rally faced renewed pressure as stronger-than-expected economic data and more hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials drove long-term bond yields to their highest levels in nearly two decades. The sharp move in rates prompted a broad market reversal, highlighting the sensitivity of equity valuations to changes in monetary policy expectations and the evolving macroeconomic outlook.

As investors reassess the balance between growth momentum and interest rate risks, the upcoming summit between U.S. and Chinese leaders remains a key potential catalyst, with geopolitical developments likely to influence market direction in the days ahead.

-Research by Yang Xin (辛旸)

-Written by Joyce Ann Macalintal

Markets entered the week bracing for pressure from oil, bond yields, and an approaching Federal Reserve decision. Then a warning from several prominent AI figures hit the part of the market that had carried the most conviction: the infrastructure behind the AI buildout.

Optical-networking and semiconductor names sold off sharply as investors questioned whether calls to slow frontier-model development could eventually weaken demand for compute capacity. Software and healthcare initially absorbed some of the capital leaving hardware, but rising energy prices and long-term borrowing costs soon placed the wider market under pressure.

The Federal Reserve’s first rate increase in several years did not end the uncertainty. It did, however, reveal a more selective market. AI infrastructure companies with visible partnerships, order activity, and strategic relevance recovered even as financials, energy, and other cyclical groups weakened. The week ended with a clearer divide between exposure to the AI theme and evidence of durable AI demand.


-Research by Yang Xin (辛旸)

-Written by Joyce Ann Macalintal

Markets clawed their way back from a punishing losing streak on Friday and briefly found relief. Just as the new week began, however, investors were blindsided by a warning from the very people who helped build the AI boom.

A widening conflict in the Middle East drove oil prices and long-term interest rates to multi-year highs, pulling major indices into a prolonged decline and sharply increasing expectations of further rate hikes. A blockbuster earnings report from a major cloud company later sparked a Friday rebound, while softer inflation data helped calm investor nerves.

Despite the late recovery, stocks still ended the week lower. The fragile rebound then faced a new threat as leading figures in artificial intelligence issued a striking public call to slow AI development, raising concerns that the technology-driven rally could lose momentum as the new week opened.


-Research by Yang Xin (辛旸)

-Written by Joyce Ann Macalintal

The market spent the week looking for relief from rising yields. AI found its own reason to rally.

A geopolitical shock, surging oil prices, and a global bond selloff pushed investors firmly toward caution at the start of the week. That pressure briefly eased as softer employment data and more measured Federal Reserve commentary revived hopes that rates might remain unchanged. A stronger payroll report then reversed the mood once again. Yet even as rate expectations turned more hawkish, a major AI acquisition reignited semiconductor, optical-networking, and AI-drug-discovery names. The message was unusually clear: powerful company-level catalysts can still outweigh an increasingly difficult macro backdrop, but only where the connection to AI demand is credible and immediate.

For a few tense days this week, it looked like inflation might get the final word again. Then earnings season had other plans. 

A hot inflation print briefly spooked markets, but a blowout AI-chip earnings report quickly flipped sentiment, while strong AI-agent growth brought software into the rally. Still, not every AI name participated equally. One custom-silicon designer beat estimates and sold off anyway, signaling that the market now demands near-perfection from AI earnings.

Markets spent the week swinging between three distinct stories — a supply-shock scare, a rates reprieve, and a biotech breakthrough — each briefly becoming the market's entire personality before giving way to the next. The result wasn't a clean win for any single theme, but a vivid reminder of how quickly capital moves when the underlying catalyst changes. At RH Capital, we read weeks like this not as noise, but as a preview of where conviction is heading next.

Markets absorbed a rapid sequence of conflicting macro signals this week — a surprisingly weak jobs report, a breakdown in geopolitical negotiations, and a pair of encouraging inflation readings — ultimately closing at fresh record highs even as the path there was anything but smooth.

Markets experienced one of the more intense stretches influenced by geopolitical factors this year, as decreasing tensions regarding Iran triggered a broad risk-on rally that propelled major indices to consecutive record highs—only for the narrative to falter later in the week, reinjecting new uncertainty. 

What began as renewed scrutiny of AI infrastructure financing quickly escalated into one of the most volatile stretches of the year, as markets moved through a wave of earnings disappointments, a hawkish Federal Reserve surprise, and a sharp geopolitical flare-up — before a standout cloud-earnings report helped pull sentiment back from the brink.

A tumultuous stretch across Monday through Thursday moved the AI trade through exhaustion, confirmation, and finally a structural validation — culminating in one of the more consequential trading sessions of the year, one that drew a clear line between AI infrastructure suppliers and the companies spending heavily to build on top of them.

U.S. markets experienced a rapid shift in sentiment throughout the week as investors moved from macro-driven optimism back toward concerns surrounding the sustainability of the AI investment cycle.

The second week of July marked a pivotal turning point for AI-related equities, as markets moved through the tail end of one of the sharpest volatility stretches the semiconductor sector has seen this year.

Markets moved through one of the most significant shifts in the AI investment narrative this year. Rather than signaling a breakdown of AI demand, activity reflected a reassessment of where value is likely to accumulate as artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to mature.

What began as renewed confidence in artificial intelligence infrastructure quickly turned into a sharp market correction before ending with stronger evidence that underlying demand remained resilient.